📊 战绩台账 (Track Record)

方向命中率 89.3% (100 对 / 12 错, 共 112 个已分胜负) · 截至 2026-08-03

不是复盘别人的过去, 而是可验证的前瞻判断战绩——每个判断都钉死 doc_date 价位, 后验它对没对。

计分口径 (诚实边界)

  • 方向取自每篇文档的 signal frontmatter (🔴short/🟡neutral/🟢long), 非 watchlist 自由文本。
  • 入场价 = CoinGecko /history 的 doc_date 00:00 UTC 快照 (日级, 约±1天偏移); 当前价 = 实时。
  • 判定: short 跌=✅ / long 涨=✅; |涨跌|<10% 记 ⚪未决 (太早/未分胜负); neutral ➖不计分。
  • ⚠️ 期中盯市, 非最终 P&L。多数 short 是条件单(反弹再空/cliff前空), 从 doc_date 盯市是代理; 未来催化(解锁cliff)尚未兑现的会长期停在 ⚪。

战绩快照

指标
方向命中率89.3%
✅ 判对100
❌ 判错12
⚪ 未决 (波动<10% / 催化未到)60
➖ 中性 (不计分)87
❔ 无数据1
总信号260

仓位记分卡 (按 actionable, 仅真实交易设置)

观点准确率是”方向判断准不准”(大样本); 仓位记分卡是”真下的单赚不赚”(小样本但真)。未标 actionable 的 = 观望/无仓位, 不计入此列 —— 样本小是它该有的样子, 别拿小样本当 edge 证据。

指标
仓位命中率75.0%
✅ 判对3
❌ 判错1
⚪ 未决2
➖ 无仓位 (观望/未标)253
已分胜负仓位4

🔫 实盘仓位 (monitor 已触发 entry · 真实触发价)

打通 monitor → ledger: 这些是触发器实际触发的仓位, 入场价 = 触发价(非 doc_date 代理), 是最名副其实的仓位战绩。空头收益 = 跌幅(跌为对), 多头 = 涨幅(涨为对)。

(暂无已触发的 entry 仓位)

分赛道命中率

赛道命中率
公链38295%
DeFi8657%
AI11192%
链抽象60100%
memecoin60100%
应用60100%
链游3260%
DePIN存储40100%
身份DID40100%
RWA30100%
ZK30100%
Restaking20100%
隐私20100%
预测市场10100%
CEX平台币10100%
支付010%
DePIN通信10100%
社交娱乐10100%

🏆 最佳判断 (方向 × 幅度)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
LAB🔴2026-06-01$9.5016$0.13534-98.6%63d
H🔴2026-06-01$0.46044$0.07494-83.7%63d
OPN🔴2026-06-04$0.23018$0.04843-79.0%60d
BSB🔴2026-05-18$0.57639$0.12513-78.3%77d
TRIA🔴2026-06-16$0.02257$0.00822515-63.6%48d
PARTI🔴2026-06-17$0.06150$0.02402-60.9%47d
KITE🔴2026-06-15$0.19236$0.09166-52.4%49d
RIVER🔴2026-06-16$4.8017$2.4100-49.8%48d

❌ 打脸 (判错, 待复盘)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
ENSO🔴2026-06-17$0.65951$0.94320+43.0%47d
SOON🔴2026-06-16$0.17226$0.21504+24.8%48d
KGEN🔴2026-06-16$0.17181$0.21064+22.6%48d
MMT🔴2026-06-16$0.12789$0.15355+20.1%48d
RECALL🔴2026-06-18$0.03621$0.04335+19.7%46d
HYPE🟢2026-06-15$63.8873$52.2800-18.2%49d
LDO🔴2026-06-19$0.27725$0.32330+16.6%45d
PIEVERSE🔴2026-06-16$0.70022$0.79535+13.6%48d

全部信号明细

代币赛道方向判定doc_date入场现价涨跌备注
KAITOAI🟡2026-06-15$0.47323$0.97434+105.9%踏空 +106%
METADeFi🟡2026-06-20$3,224.8574$5,248.1900+62.7%踏空 +63%
GIGGLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$26.8805$42.5900+58.4%踏空 +58%
ZAMA隐私🟡2026-06-15$0.03179$0.04750+49.4%踏空 +49%
ENSODeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.65951$0.94320+43.0%
BOMEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00043497$0.00059871+37.6%踏空 +38%
CAPDeFi🟡2026-07-26$0.02097$0.02845+35.7%踏空 +36%
PUMPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.00157465$0.00208983+32.7%踏空 +33%
UNIDeFi🟡2026-06-19$3.2072$4.1200+28.5%踏空 +28%
MUBARAKmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01052$0.01332+26.6%踏空 +27%
SOON公链🔴2026-06-16$0.17226$0.21504+24.8%
PEOPLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00558105$0.00688016+23.3%
AAVEDeFi🟡2026-06-19$74.8097$91.7800+22.7%
KGEN链游🔴2026-06-16$0.17181$0.21064+22.6%
MMTDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.12789$0.15355+20.1%
RECALLAI🔴2026-06-18$0.03621$0.04335+19.7%
LITDeFi🟡2026-06-15$1.6838$2.0000+18.8%
METDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.13583$0.15847+16.7%
LDODeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.27725$0.32330+16.6%
YFIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$1,855.7379$2,110.7800+13.7%
PIEVERSE支付🔴2026-06-16$0.70022$0.79535+13.6%
SYRUPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.13588$0.15355+13.0%
ADA公链🔴2026-06-18$0.16672$0.18665+12.0%
1INCHDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.07296$0.08087+10.8%
HMSTR链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00015423$0.00016997+10.2%
OKBCEX平台币🟡2026-06-04$78.9050$86.2100+9.3%
ETHFIDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.36292$0.39649+9.3%
WETDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.06145$0.06701+9.1%
JUPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.17948$0.19296+7.5%
ETH公链🟡2026-06-18$1,748.7550$1,858.9800+6.3%
BCH公链🔴2026-06-19$199.5051$210.9700+5.7%
COAIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.31999$0.33776+5.6%
APRDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.19637$0.20606+4.9%
AERODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.37759$0.39243+3.9%
FARTCOINmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.12221$0.12690+3.8%
GMXDeFi🟡2026-06-20$5.9112$6.1200+3.5%
ACUDePIN算力🔴2026-06-17$0.07602$0.07863+3.4%
AEVODeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.01857$0.01916+3.2%
PIPPINmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01552$0.01601+3.1%
POPCATmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.04271$0.04395+2.9%
NOW应用🟡2026-06-20$0.34330$0.35315+2.9%
LINK预言机🔴2026-06-18$8.0845$8.2700+2.3%
SHIBmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000476$0.00000486+2.1%
SATSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00000001$0.00000001+2.0%
AVAX公链🔴2026-06-19$6.3106$6.4300+1.9%
SOL公链🟡2026-06-18$71.9773$72.9700+1.4%
TRX公链🟡2026-06-18$0.32150$0.32603+1.4%
LTC公链🔴2026-06-19$43.7987$44.4100+1.4%
ONDORWA🟡2026-06-15$0.36754$0.37234+1.3%
AT预言机🔴2026-06-14$0.13227$0.13384+1.2%
PEPEmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000284$0.00000286+0.6%
GPS安全🔴2026-06-17$0.00935656$0.00936301+0.1%
UBAI🔴2026-05-29$0.17142$0.17143+0.0%
MANA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.06707$0.06698-0.1%
EDGEDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.34818$0.34749-0.2%
KMNODeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.01806$0.01801-0.3%
BASEDDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.07611$0.07571-0.5%
MORPHODeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.9450$1.9200-1.3%
ORDImemecoin🟡2026-06-20$3.5390$3.4900-1.4%
ETHW公链🔴2026-06-20$0.23949$0.23544-1.7%
APE应用🔴2026-06-19$0.13335$0.13090-1.8%
RAVE社交娱乐🔴2026-06-16$0.29320$0.28757-1.9%
FLOW公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02846$0.02789-2.0%
ALLOAI🔴2026-05-30$0.25651$0.25120-2.1%
ME应用🔴2026-06-20$0.06181$0.06047-2.2%
BTC公链🟡2026-06-18$64,444.5453$62,887.0000-2.4%
BLEND公链🔴2026-06-11$0.06702$0.06532-2.5%
TRUSTAI🔴2026-06-17$0.04991$0.04868-2.5%
PLUMERWA🔴2026-06-20$0.01101$0.01073-2.6%
PYTH预言机🟢2026-05-30$0.04059$0.03942-2.9%
RSRDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.00129926$0.00125272-3.6%
SAPIENAI🔴2026-06-17$0.08289$0.07979-3.7%
SKYDeFi🟡2026-06-19$0.05781$0.05564-3.8%
TRB预言机🔴2026-06-20$13.9274$13.3800-3.9%
BAND预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.15937$0.15318-3.9%
TRUTHAI🔴2026-06-17$0.01331$0.01275-4.1%
UPDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.33933$0.32458-4.3%
AGLD链游🟡2026-06-20$0.15492$0.14830-4.3%
PENDLEDeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.4047$1.3400-4.6%
RAYDeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.63558$0.60569-4.7%
MINAZK🟡2026-06-20$0.04268$0.04059-4.9%
ARB公链🔴2026-06-19$0.08521$0.08065-5.3%
ASTERDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.63495$0.60088-5.4%
SUI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.72894$0.68758-5.7%
BNBCEX平台币🟢2026-06-04$619.7835$583.5800-5.8%
POL公链🔴2026-06-19$0.07769$0.07296-6.1%
VIRTUALAI🔴2026-06-19$0.59866$0.56086-6.3%
DYDXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.12028$0.11252-6.4%
NMRAI🟡2026-06-20$9.1472$8.5600-6.4%
SSVDeFi🟡2026-06-20$2.3960$2.2400-6.5%
ZBTZK🔴2026-06-17$0.12848$0.12002-6.6%
COMPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$17.6422$16.4600-6.7%
LQTYDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.19801$0.18476-6.7%
MAGIC链游🟡2026-06-20$0.04489$0.04183-6.8%
INJ公链🔴2026-06-19$5.4013$5.0300-6.9%
CELO公链🟡2026-06-20$0.06675$0.06206-7.0%
ENADeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.09552$0.08836-7.5%
EGLD公链🔴2026-06-20$2.8747$2.6500-7.8%
MON公链🔴2026-06-15$0.02249$0.02070-7.9%
JELLYJELLYmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.05978$0.05507-7.9%
WLFIDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.05978$0.05492-8.1%
EIGEN公链🔴2026-06-15$0.20342$0.18666-8.2%
ZEN隐私🔴2026-06-20$4.4808$4.1100-8.3%
ZRXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.08592$0.07874-8.3%
MEWmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00036574$0.00033551-8.3%
NEIROmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00006713$0.00006137-8.6%
ETC公链🔴2026-06-19$7.2088$6.5800-8.7%
ICP公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2612$2.0600-8.9%
A公链🔴2026-06-19$0.06897$0.06284-8.9%
STABLE公链🔴2026-06-15$0.03549$0.03223-9.2%
PENGUmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00674319$0.00611379-9.3%
XRP公链🟡2026-06-18$1.1858$1.0720-9.6%
ZEC隐私🟢2026-05-31$528.2022$476.9900-9.7%
MEMEmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.00055106$0.00049775-9.7%
CRVDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.22497$0.20130-10.5%
QTUM公链🔴2026-06-20$0.72412$0.64506-10.9%
SPACEDePIN通信🔴2026-06-16$0.00664728$0.00590428-11.2%
IRYSDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.01840$0.01633-11.3%
ALGO公链🔴2026-06-19$0.09624$0.08534-11.3%
WOODeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.01282$0.01135-11.4%
MASK社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.39127$0.34610-11.5%
TURBOmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00088989$0.00078638-11.6%
PNUTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.04431$0.03906-11.8%
MOODENGmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.04017$0.03537-12.0%
DASH公链🔴2026-06-19$35.3417$31.0700-12.1%
JTODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.55884$0.49027-12.3%
BREVZK🔴2026-06-17$0.08150$0.07144-12.3%
SNXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.24219$0.21211-12.4%
KSM公链🔴2026-06-20$3.4748$3.0400-12.5%
MERL公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02016$0.01764-12.5%
VVVAI🟡2026-07-26$13.3186$11.6300-12.7%
SENTAI🟡2026-06-15$0.01558$0.01358-12.8%
APT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.64194$0.55881-12.9%
SUSHIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.17659$0.15369-13.0%
ONE公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00140147$0.00121936-13.0%
BLUR应用🔴2026-06-20$0.01590$0.01382-13.1%
CROCEX平台币🔴2026-06-15$0.06245$0.05424-13.2%
HBAR公链🔴2026-06-19$0.08015$0.06933-13.5%
XTZ公链🔴2026-06-19$0.23141$0.19989-13.6%
DOOD社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00146679$0.00126577-13.7%
AXS应用🔴2026-06-19$0.95485$0.82029-14.1%
QNT链抽象🔴2026-06-19$69.9811$59.9900-14.3%
AIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.02604$0.02226-14.5%
LINEA公链🟡2026-06-16$0.00259297$0.00221396-14.6%
GLMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.10676$0.09105-14.7%
ESP公链🔴2026-06-16$0.07245$0.06163-14.9%
ANIME社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00283822$0.00240966-15.1%
CFX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04884$0.04137-15.3%
W链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.00952123$0.00806037-15.3%
GRAM公链🔴2026-06-18$1.6647$1.4000-15.9%
RVN公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00419496$0.00352671-15.9%
ACTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.01028$0.00864976-15.9%
AZTEC隐私🔴2026-06-16$0.01667$0.01399-16.1%
NOT链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00040601$0.00033985-16.3%
XPL公链🟡2026-06-15$0.08956$0.07491-16.4%
LAYERRestaking🔴2026-06-17$0.07198$0.05987-16.8%
WIFmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.16615$0.13819-16.8%
TIA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.39319$0.32601-17.1%
INIT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.06025$0.04986-17.2%
GAS公链🔴2026-06-20$1.1002$0.91048-17.2%
GMT链游🟡2026-06-20$0.00796977$0.00658297-17.4%
EDENRWA🔴2026-06-04$0.04865$0.04005-17.7%
NEO公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2049$1.8100-17.9%
SAND应用🔴2026-06-19$0.05157$0.04231-18.0%
ENS身份DID🟡2026-06-15$5.1548$4.2200-18.1%
HYPEDeFi🟢2026-06-15$63.8873$52.2800-18.2%
ZIL公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00311171$0.00253798-18.4%
UMA预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.41426$0.33758-18.5%
DOGEmemecoin🔴2026-06-18$0.08585$0.06992-18.6%
DOT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.97328$0.79164-18.7%
RENDERAI🔴2026-06-19$1.6768$1.3600-18.9%
ONT身份DID🔴2026-06-20$0.04587$0.03716-19.0%
ZKP身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.05630$0.04546-19.2%
PROVE公链🔴2026-06-16$0.20438$0.16492-19.3%
THETAAI🔴2026-06-19$0.15504$0.12423-19.9%
LUNA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.05136$0.04108-20.0%
AUCTIONDeFi🟡2026-06-20$3.7331$2.9600-20.7%
OP公链🔴2026-06-19$0.10913$0.08598-21.2%
GRASSAI🔴2026-06-19$0.40086$0.31513-21.4%
IOST公链🟡2026-06-20$0.00077091$0.00060618-21.4%
LRCZK🔴2026-06-20$0.01340$0.01047-21.8%
2ZDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.07071$0.05503-22.2%
HUMARWA🟡2026-06-16$0.02396$0.01859-22.4%
CORE公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02684$0.02083-22.4%
SPKDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.02014$0.01554-22.8%
AIXBTAI🟡2026-06-20$0.02262$0.01744-22.9%
ATHAI🟡2026-06-16$0.00494941$0.00380399-23.1%
ZETA链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.03654$0.02810-23.1%
NEAR公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2335$1.7100-23.4%
XLM公链🔴2026-06-18$0.22520$0.17150-23.8%
SIGN身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.00880698$0.00667556-24.2%
ICX公链🔴2026-06-20$0.02798$0.02114-24.4%
IMX链游🟡2026-06-15$0.14647$0.11027-24.7%
YBDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.08683$0.06530-24.8%
ZRO公链🟡2026-06-15$0.95565$0.71774-24.9%
KAT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00570672$0.00425072-25.5%
SEI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.05530$0.04118-25.5%
STX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.18462$0.13710-25.7%
FLOKImemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00002738$0.00002031-25.8%
GRTAI🔴2026-06-19$0.01958$0.01447-26.1%
FILDePIN存储🔴2026-05-17$0.97143$0.71662-26.2%
WCT链抽象🔴2026-06-18$0.04769$0.03518-26.2%
METIS公链🟡2026-06-20$3.3800$2.4600-27.2%避坑 -27%
BAT应用🔴2026-06-19$0.09090$0.06613-27.3%
PROSRWA🟡2026-06-15$0.58190$0.42085-27.7%避坑 -28%
TRUMPmemecoin🟡2026-06-16$1.9932$1.4400-27.8%避坑 -28%
IOTA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04580$0.03293-28.1%
LPTAI🔴2026-06-20$1.7697$1.2700-28.2%
VANAAI🔴2026-06-16$1.1700$0.83877-28.3%
S公链🔴2026-06-20$0.03074$0.02202-28.4%
CCRWA🟡2026-06-18$0.16252$0.11574-28.8%避坑 -29%
YGG链游🟡2026-06-20$0.02549$0.01812-28.9%避坑 -29%
AVNTDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.11429$0.08068-29.4%
TAOAI🟡2026-06-15$270.4887$190.3900-29.6%避坑 -30%
WALDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.03537$0.02483-29.8%
STRK公链🔴2026-06-19$0.03551$0.02493-29.8%
SOPH公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00552694$0.00387343-29.9%
ATOM公链🔴2026-06-19$1.8094$1.2600-30.4%
ARKMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.13380$0.09272-30.7%
ARDePIN存储🟡2026-06-04$2.5170$1.7400-30.9%避坑 -31%
ORDERDeFi🔴2026-06-18$0.03996$0.02757-31.0%
ENJ链游🔴2026-06-20$0.03554$0.02443-31.3%
API3预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.27452$0.18832-31.4%避坑 -31%
GALA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.00258423$0.00176436-31.7%
BRETTmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00575520$0.00392095-31.9%避坑 -32%
BERA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.22581$0.15289-32.3%
CHIPRWA🔴2026-06-16$0.03660$0.02473-32.4%
USELESSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.07426$0.05021-32.4%避坑 -32%
ZK公链🟡2026-06-16$0.01167$0.00786179-32.6%避坑 -33%
ID身份DID🟡2026-05-31$0.04031$0.02710-32.8%避坑 -33%
ZORA社交娱乐🔴2026-06-17$0.00842188$0.00554739-34.1%
PI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.13078$0.08392-35.8%
BIOAI🟡2026-06-20$0.03469$0.02201-36.5%避坑 -37%
FOGO公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01302$0.00825472-36.6%
BBRestaking🔴2026-06-18$0.02280$0.01434-37.1%
BONKmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000453$0.00000285-37.1%
LAZK🔴2026-06-17$0.07578$0.04704-37.9%
MNT公链🔴2026-05-17$0.64327$0.39831-38.1%
BIGTIME链游2026-06-18$0.00894092$0.00551571-38.3%避坑 -38%
NIGHT隐私🔴2026-06-19$0.03107$0.01908-38.6%
MOVE公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01263$0.00745363-41.0%
WLD身份DID🟡2026-06-04$0.54195$0.31920-41.1%避坑 -41%
MEGA公链🟡2026-06-15$0.06283$0.03587-42.9%避坑 -43%
CHZ应用🔴2026-06-19$0.02228$0.01271-43.0%
BABY公链🔴2026-06-16$0.01952$0.01092-44.0%
OPGAI🟡2026-06-16$0.16220$0.08944-44.9%避坑 -45%
SAHARAAI🔴2026-06-16$0.01490$0.00783201-47.4%
BEAT链游🔴2026-06-11$6.8935$3.6200-47.5%
RIVERDeFi🔴2026-06-16$4.8017$2.4100-49.8%
KITEAI🔴2026-06-15$0.19236$0.09166-52.4%
0G公链🟡2026-06-16$0.30600$0.14026-54.2%避坑 -54%
BICO链抽象🟡2026-06-20$0.03528$0.01548-56.1%避坑 -56%
PARTI链抽象🔴2026-06-17$0.06150$0.02402-60.9%
TRIA链抽象🔴2026-06-16$0.02257$0.00822515-63.6%
BSBRWA🔴2026-05-18$0.57639$0.12513-78.3%
OPN预测市场🔴2026-06-04$0.23018$0.04843-79.0%
HOMEDeFi🟡2026-06-04$0.04023$0.00653900-83.7%避坑 -84%
H身份DID🔴2026-06-01$0.46044$0.07494-83.7%
LABDeFi🔴2026-06-01$9.5016$0.13534-98.6%
IP公链🟡2026-06-15

← 回 00_索引